The dynamics of polycrisis: Lessons from 50 years of global shocks

Our world is shaken by crises that no longer strike in isolation. They often collide and amplify one another, pushing societies and ecosystems to their limits. This entanglement has led researchers and decision-makers to speak of a new phenomenon: the polycrisis.

“Polycrisis is more than a buzzword, it is a complex phenomenon that we are now able to track. By unpacking its dynamics, we can figure out better ways to respond, and that’s what we’re working toward,” says Louis Delannoy, lead author of the study and postdoctoral researcher at Stockholm Resilience Centre.

Focusing on shocks

To understand the dynamics of polycrisis, data from 175 countries spanning 1970 to 2019 were analyzed. Rather than focusing on crises themselves, which are often difficult to define in terms of scale and timing, the study examined their building blocks: shocks.

Shocks are sudden events with significant impact, such as floods, banking collapses, disease outbreaks, or armed conflicts. A crisis emerges when these shocks overwhelm the systems designed to absorb them: when their frequency, intensity, or interconnections exceed the capacity for effective response and adaptation.

Diverging trends

The study unpacked six categories of shocks (climatic, geophysical, ecological, economic, technological, and conflicts-related) to explore how they have evolved over time, how they distribute globally, and how they tend to co-occur. The analysis revealed substantial variation in shock frequency across categories. For example, climatic shocks increased steadily until the early 2000s, after which they plateaued at around 300 events per year. In contrast, economic shocks followed a bell-shaped trajectory, peaking in the 1990s at approximately 110.

Between 1970 and 2000, the co-occurrence of shocks increased significantly, meaning that multiple types of shocks increasingly struck the same country within the same year. However, this trend varies notably by region. In Asia, up to 75% of all shocks co-occur, compared to only 25% in OECD countries.

After 2000, the overall rate of co-occurrence plateaued or slightly declined, though substantial regional disparities remain. These patterns highlight that polycrisis is not uniform across the globe, it is shaped by local histories, institutional capacities, and underlying vulnerabilities.

“Our study shows that multiple regions currently are in a prolonged period of what can best be described as polycrisis. We hope to further develop our capacity to monitor these unfolding dynamics of key importance to the future of societies,” says Peter Søgaard Jørgensen, co-author and research theme leader at Stockholm Resilience Centre.

Dangerous combinations

The study also reveals a striking pattern: certain shocks, especially those linked to climate, technology, and conflict, are far more likely to strike together. This clustering is not just statistically significant; it’s a warning signal. When these shocks collide, they can amplify one another, leading to more acute polycrisis.

“Recognizing these dangerous combinations is more than an academic insight, it’s a call to action. By anticipating where and how such shocks may overlap, societies can shift from reactive to proactive crisis response. This research marks a crucial first step in that direction,” says Louis Delannoy.